Click here to download a PDF of the Land Consumption High Map

Click here to download a PDF of the Land Consumption Low Map

Land Consumption Maps

In addition to the Future Development 2020/2030 Maps showing geographic areas forecast to experience development, DVRPC also created maps showing the relative number of acres forecasted as new development by the year 2030 for each municipality in the watershed.  This series of maps was created to help further prioritize land protection efforts.  For example, municipalities forecast to consume the highest number of acres across the watershed could be targeted for planning services to ensure appropriate growth management.

Data Sources and Methodology for Land Consumption by Municipality Maps
DVRPC region:

• Population 2000 Census
• Household Size – 2000 Census
• Land Consumption Factor (acres/dwelling unit) – DVRPC Land Use Consumption  Model, based on year 2000 land use file and census data
• Population forecasts from DVRPC 2030 forecasts
• Population forecasts were converted to household size, and multiplied by the land use consumption factor to estimate land consumed in year 2030.
• Two models were used:  A Trend Scenario predicted land consumption if current trends continue, and was considered the High Consumption in the map series.  A Plan Scenario predicted that densities would increase with more infill development, thereby consuming less land in the future, and is depicted in the Low Consumption map series.

Berks and Schuylkill counties

• Population 2000 Census
• Household Size 2000 Census
• Population projections for Berks and Schuylkill Counties were obtained from the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) Division of Water Use Planning
• Land Consumption factors were obtained from information that discussed lot size and housing type contained within the respective county plans. Due to the variety of scenarios that could be chosen a low and high Land Use Consumption Factor was selected.
• Berks Low Consumption factor: Density averages were provided for four different housing types in Section III-8 of the Berks County Comprehensive Plan. These figures covered areas of the county with public water and sewer service, but did not account for residential development taking place outside of designated Growth Areas which do not have public water and sewer, and therefore did not reflect the large lot size of many new residential subdivisions in rural areas.  Consequently, it was decided that these ratios would represent the low consumption factor for townships in Berks County. The ratios are as follows:

• Berks County High Consumption Factor: Submitted Subdivision Plans represent general development interest but do not necessarily represent actual residential construction. According to data in the Comp Plan, from 1990 to 1999 the average lot size in subdivision plans was 1.73 acres. Because this high figure represents likely future land consumption it was chosen as the high consumption factor for townships. Data on residential subdivision plans can be found in Section I-17 of the comprehensive plan.
• Schuylkill County Low Consumption Factor: The County Plan in Section 3 (p. 15) described the vast majority of all new residential development as single family homes on one or more acre lots.  A consumption factor of 1 acre/dwelling unit was therefore used.
• Schuylkill County High Consumption Factor:The same figure of 1.73 acres/du from the Berks County model was used due to lack of a comparative figure in the Schuylkill County Plan
• Borough/City Consumption Factor: Borough’s and cities generally cover smaller land areas and are nearly built out. As such the development expected to occur in the boroughs is less significant and denser than that in the townships. Thus different consumption factors were used for the boroughs and cities than the townships in Berks and Schuylkill counties. The weighted (for population) and non-weighted average density of the boroughs that are in the DVRPC region of the Schuylkill watershed was calculated with the resulting consumption factors applied to boroughs and cities in Berks and Schuylkill counties. The non-weighted average of 0.22 acres/du was the high consumption factor, and the weighted average of 0.16 acres/du was the low consumption factor.

Constraints to Method:

• Land consumption data for Berks and Schuylkill counties is estimated based on countywide data available via their County Plans, rather than unique consumption factors per municipality as was available for the DVRPC region from the DVRPC land use file.
• Sparse information available on Schuylkill County resulted in applying some figures from Berks to Schuylkill County
• The Land Use Consumption Model completed for the DVRPC region included land consumed by future residential and employment uses, because both population and employment forecasts by municipality, and existing land use consumption factors for residential and employment uses were available.  Employment projections by municipality were not available for Berks or Schuylkill counties, so the future land consumption model does not include land that would be consumed by non-residential uses. 
• However, data from the Schuylkill County Comprehensive Plan estimated that about 2,250 acres were developed for industrial, commercial and institutional uses between 1992 and 2002, totaling about 40% of total land developed.  Of pending and proposed development shown on Map 2.3.2 of the Comp Plan, 65%, or 3046 acres, are proposed for industrial, commercial and institutional uses.  From the Comp Plan, this is the only data available on future non-residential development, and it could potentially be incorporated into the analysis to at least account for short term non-residential development.  Schuylkill County employment projections at the county level show a 16.5% increase, from 64,562 employees in 2000 to 74,460 in 2025.
• In Berks County, only county level employment forecasts are available to 2012, showing an increase of 18,640 employees from 2002. (168,090 to 186,730 employees).  Data or maps of areas proposed for non-residential development were not provided in the Comp Plan, although preferred sites at interchanges and other areas are shown as points on the Future Land Use Plan.

Note:  West Lawn Borough was included in the Spring Township population projections provided by the DEP, therefore it is included as part of Spring Township in our projections.